US military action likely in March after ultimatum to Iran
US President Donald Trump on 19 February told reporters that Iran would have “…10-15 days, pretty much maximum” to reach a deal “otherwise bad things happen”.
- The timeline correlates to the approximately ten days’ sail time still needed by the aircraft carrier strike group (CSG) led by USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78) to reach the Gulf of Oman, a likely prerequisite for US military action.
- She will join the USS Abraham Lincoln CSG, together capable of launching around 500 sorties per day along with surface, air, electronic and subsea attack and defence weaponry.
- The movement of a significant number of refuelling aircraft (KC-135s) has also been observed in recent days; such aircraft will facilitate large-scale operations by the US against Iran while also being well positioned to handle any retaliation.
- Talks in Geneva (Switzerland) on 17 February produced little with further Iranian concessions remaining unlikely, meaning military confrontation is increasingly likely.
Steaming eastwards
The Ford on 18 February briefly switched on her AIS (open-source location broadcast system) while west of the Strait of Gibraltar. Control Risks has not observed open-source reports of her passing by the Strait yet. The approximate transit from Gibraltar to the Gulf of Oman is just over 4,000 nautical miles in addition to the Suez Canal (a managed passage that takes at least 12 hours), with an average speed likely to be around 18 knots. This means it will take about 238 hours (or ten days) for the Ford CSG to sail to the Gulf of Oman, assuming it is indeed underway through Gibraltar and will not stop or encounter delays. This also assumes the Ford is not sailing at top speed (she is capable of almost double 18 knots).
Open-source monitoring of US Air Force craft has also indicated a significant movement of US refuelling aircraft (KC-135s) from the US to bases in Europe and the Middle East that would facilitate any large-scale and weeks-long operations by the US against Iran; some estimates state that there are now at least 15 KC-135s deployed in Europe and the Middle East. The refuelling craft will also facilitate defensive action against Iranian retaliation.
The significance of carriers
The Ford is the first of the “Ford class” aircraft carriers launched by the US (USS John F. Kennedy is expected to launch in 2027). The class is bigger than the previous Nimitz class carriers but with greater speed, manoeuvrability and less crew requirements. Most importantly, the Ford class can fly approximately 30% more sorties a day than the Nimitz class: sustaining 160 sorties a day, surging to 270 for heavy combat.
The Ford and Lincoln carriers each have at least three escorting destroyers, themselves capable of launching cruise missiles at Iranian targets ashore. The destroyers are also well equipped to handle air defence from Iranian retaliation against US forces, its allies in the region or merchant shipping around the Strait of Hormuz area. Along with cruisers (likely at least one per CSG), the destroyers can also combat forces on and below the surface alongside nuclear powered attack submarines (an unknown number), a critical capability given that Iran has a sizable conventional naval force, including a large submarine fleet and numerous fast attack craft designed to swarm their targets.
Outlook
The Gulf Arab states are likely to lobby the White House against carrying out military action during the Holy month of Ramadan (18 February to approximately 19 March), as it will risk creating an acute political and theological sensitivity for the region’s leaders. However, this does not preclude the US striking before the end of the month if conditions are more advantageous, or if other political pressures dictate a logic to strike earlier rather than later.
The US is most likely to wait until the Ford is in place to strike. This would roughly coincide with the deadline Trump gave on 13 and 19 February for Iran to come back to the US with details on steps forward and to demonstrate meaningful progress.
Such action is not a foregone conclusion, but should Trump consider that the negotiations have failed, the US will be in a fully ready position to conduct major operations against Iran from early March. Such operations would very likely remain restricted to the naval and air domain with only special forces ashore to minimise the risk of US casualties.
Sources:
“Trump warns of bad things if no deal made, sets deadline of 10-15 days”, Reuters
“US Build-up of warships and fighter jets tracked near Iran”, BBC
Control Risks