USE CASE

Seerist Helps Clients Plan for What's Next in Contested Kenyan Election

During the leadup and aftermath of the contentious Kenyan election, on-the-ground analysts equipped users with expert pre- and post-analysis while the AI technology provided real-time updates of ongoing unrest and forecasted stability.

PRE-ANALYSIS

Voter apathy to limit turnout at 9 August
elections – some unrest likely.

JULY 29, 2022

Growing reports of unrest in the region leads
to a Hotspot trigger

Despite Presidential candidate Raila
Odinga’s failure to appear at the debate,
he remains likely to win the presidential
poll, given his wider network of senior
political allies and the backing of the state
apparatus.

The long political careers of the two main
coalitions will drive voter apathy and
contribute to low turnout.

The losers of the electoral contests will
likely challenge the results in court over
concerns of the independence of the
electoral commission.

Although we do not anticipate violence,
disruptive protests are likely in the
aftermath of the polls given a likely dispute
over the results.

POST-ANALYSIS

Widespread violence remains unlikely despite
rising tensions over election outcome.

Paul Ongili Owino, a prominent
parliamentarian with links to veteran
opposition leader Raila Odinga, said
that Odinga supporters will not accept
the presidential election results if
Odinga loses.

AUGUST 11, 2022

Odinga and his main opponent have
thus far garnered a similar number of
votes, underlining their success in
co-opting a wide range of political
leaders.

With a similar number of votes and
growing concerns over impartiality and
competency of the IEBC electoral body
will facilitate the efforts of each camp to
challenge the outcome of the polls.

This will affect the IEBC’s public image,
contributing to tensions and unrest that
will pose mostly incidental security risks
to businesses operating in the country in
the next few days.

We maintain that the levels of violence
will be significantly less than those
experienced during previous elections,
partly due to international pressure.

Crowds gather in support of presidential
candidate, William Ruto

POST-ANALYSIS

Election crisis remains unlikely despite
controversies surrounding results.

AUGUST 16, 2022

With uncertainty around elections results,
the Pulse score plummets

Ruto’s main opponent, Raila Odinga, will
legally challenge the results at the
Supreme Court in the week ahead,
thereby prolonging the electoral period.

Political tensions will remain elevated.
However, Odinga’s Azimio la Umoja
coalition will likely remain open to
negotiations with Ruto, given that the
coalition’s failure to garner votes in the
populous Mount Kenya region will remain
a key weakness.

Combined with Ruto’s more conciliatory
tone, this will mitigate the threat of
violence in the coming weeks. Businesses
will largely face incidental security threats
resulting from localised protests.

POST-ANALYSIS

Tensions to rise in coming weeks amid judicial
proceedings seeking to nullify elections.

Veteran opposition leader Raila Odinga officially filed a petition at the Supreme Court challenging the victory of Deputy President William Ruto.

AUGUST 23, 2022

The petition will pave the way for the
Supreme Court and general public to
closely scrutinize multiple allegations of
foul play at the elections over the
coming weeks, worsening distrust
between political leaders.

Concerns over the vulnerability of the
IEBC and its officials to intimidation will
compound these issues, especially as
the two sides politicie reports of
violence.

These tensions will increase the threat
of unrest given the popularity of both
Odinga and Ruto in urban areas,
especially as the ruling – set for 5
September – approaches.

However, any unrest is unlikely to be
protracted, given that neither Odinga
nor Ruto is likely to resort to violent
mobilisation.

While both candidates have strong
urban support, analysts predict no violence

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