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Criminal leader’s death to drive VERY HIGH security risks in several states over coming days

The Defence Ministry (Defensa) on 22 February killed Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes (alias “El Mencho”), leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), in Tapalpa municipality (Jalisco state).

  • Widespread retaliatory attacks across several states followed Oseguera’s death, the federal government’s highest-value criminal target, highlighting the CJNG’s extensive territorial reach.
  • This, coupled with the absence of a clear successor, will underpin instability – mainly in central and western Mexico – in the coming months.
  • Roadblocks, vehicle arson and armed clashes will disrupt transport and business operations, particularly in western states, over at least the next three days.

 

Oseguera’s death

According to the Defensa, military personnel during the operation came under attack and responded in self-defence. Four alleged CJNG members were killed at the scene, and three others were wounded and later died after security forces airlifted them to the capital Mexico City for medical treatment. Oseguera was among those reported dead. The operation triggered retaliatory activity, mainly across western and central Mexico.

Within hours, CJNG operatives set vehicles on fire, carried out carjackings to erect illegal roadblocks (narcobloqueos), attacked local businesses and petrol stations with arson, and engaged security forces in armed confrontations. The most significant disruption was recorded in Jalisco, with spillover incidents reported in Guanajuato, Michoacán, Nayarit and Colima states. News outlets and social media posts also reported incidents in other areas where the CJNG maintains substantial operational capacity – including Baja California, Querétaro, Puebla, Oaxaca, Tamaulipas and Quintana Roo states.

These developments underscore the group’s geographic reach and capacity to mobilise rapidly across multiple jurisdictions. Several state and municipal governments have suspended public activities and transport services and have advised residents to remain indoors until further notice.

 

What now?

Under Oseguera’s leadership, the CJNG became the organised criminal group (OCG) with the broadest geographic reach in Mexico. Command structures remain relatively hierarchical in core strongholds – particularly Jalisco, Michoacán and Guanajuato – while regional factions present across most of the country retain significant operational, strategic and financial autonomy. This fragmented structure will sustain decentralised violence amid the leadership vacuum.

Succession in the CJNG is likely to be more disorderly than recent transitions in other Mexican OCGs. Following the abduction of Ismael Zambada (alias “El Mayo”) in July 2025, infighting in the Sinaloa Cartel remained largely contained within Sinaloa state and unfolded through a structure that retained a relatively clear, family-based line of succession. By contrast, the CJNG’s national footprint and the absence of a designated successor to Oseguera will increase the likelihood of persistent multi-state disruption and competition among senior figures, accelerating fragmentation and internal conflict.

 

Outlook

The security risk level in western Mexico will remain VERY HIGH in the immediate term (spanning 72 hours to one week). According to Control Risks’ methodology, this means that “the security environment and/or social conditions represent an insurmountable obstacle to doing business, even if enhanced and/or specialised security conditions are in place”. Frequent roadblocks, vehicle arson and armed confrontations are likely, driving localised disruption to transport, commerce and public services.

Over the following months, internal fragmentation within the CJNG will remain likely as regional factions compete for control. This will heighten volatility in Jalisco and other states with a strong CJNG presence – including Guanajuato, Michoacán, Colima, Nayarit, Aguascalientes, Baja California, Guerrero, Puebla and Tamaulipas – and will contribute to a broader reconfiguration of criminal alignments nationwide.

 

Sources:

“The capture and death of Nemesio Oseguera, ‘El Mencho’, live”, El País

Control Risks