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SITUATION REPORT

Geopolitical Risk Assessment: Iranian Woman’s Arrest & Death Leads to Unrest

Following the death of Mahsa Amini and the nationwide demonstrations protesting her death, as well as supporting women’s personal freedoms, Seerist alerted users to the evolving geopolitical risk assessment. It kept them aware of the country’s outlook over the coming days and weeks, as widespread anti-government sentiment took hold.

SEPTEMBER 16, 2022

crime

22-year-old woman, Mahsa Amini, was arrested in Tehran for not wearing her head covering properly.

Amini was taken to the hospital after physical abuse following her arrest, where she later died from a reported heart attack.

First Hotspot was triggered in Tehran as images of Amini were shared on social media, leading to widespread condemnation of the government and nationwide protests.

SEPTEMBER 18, 2022

PulseAI dropped outside the average range as protests expand to demand the cancellation of hijab laws.
Two unrest Hotspots triggered in Tehran and Kermanshah when the University of Tehran held a demonstration in support of women’s personal freedoms.
declining stability in Iran

SEPTEMBER 20, 2022

Analysis

Further protests likely in the coming days, with the largest demonstrations in the Tehran and Kordestan provinces.
Amini’s death likely to stir discontent among Kurdish Iranian citizens who already experience repressive and discriminatory policing.
protesting
While protesters are unlikely to target foreign organizations, the high likelihood of indiscriminate arrests and violence between police and protesters will present incidental security threats over the coming weeks.

SEPTEMBER 23, 2022

Analysis

Additional protests likely as public anger against the death and dress mandates for women combine with frustration over challenging economic conditions.
Protests in coming days will drive upward pressure on the medium national civil unrest Risk Rating.
Civil unrest Risk Rating will likely increase to high if governmental repression generates organized and sustained violence against security forces.

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*Analysis provided by strategic partnership with Control Risks

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