Real Time Risk Assessment of Sudan Unrest tied to Transitional Agreement

Opposition groups warned on 28 March 2023 that a final agreement between military and civilian representatives, expected to be announced on 1 April, would “not stabilize the country.” Over the following weeks, Seerist closely monitored the conflict, providing users with expert analysis and real time risk assessments to keep them informed of the deteriorating conditions in the country.

28 MARCH 2023

Several groups within Sudan warn that a transitional agreement will not be accepted.
Former armed groups under the Sudan Revolutionary Front (SRF) and representatives from eastern Sudan on 27 March met with General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the leader of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the ruling Sovereign Council.
In a statement following the meeting, the groups said that the main opposition Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC) coalition was not adequately representing their interests, and that they would not recognize the legitimacy of a new transitional government.

29 MARCH 2023

Workshop fails.

A workshop to discuss the integration of paramilitary Rapid support Forces (RSF) into the SAF failed to agree to a timeline, with mistrust between the two groups fueling resistance to integrate.

30 MARCH 2023

Expert Analysis warns of unrest.

Geopolitical analysts at Seerist strategic partner, Control Risks, indicate that unrest in the capital Khartoum and other urban areas is likely over the coming weeks, with various groups organizing protests and blockades in response to any new deal for a transitional government.

Protests will cause severe operational and supply chain disruption and clashes could post incidental threats to businesses or personnel.

6 APRIL 2023

Eroding stability.

The Pulse stability score dropped, nearing the bottom of the country’s 60-day range.

11 APRIL 2023

Unrest begins to proliferate.

Seerist’s Intelligence Team verifies unrest event in Zalingei, Central Darfur when hundreds gather and march protesting the delay in arresting perpetrators responsible for killing an army lieutenant colonel.

15 APRIL 2023

War between factions.

Seerist team continues to document escalating clashes between the RSF and SAF, verifying events as they occur. Analysts at our strategic partner, Control Risks, flag that the deteriorating relationship between the two groups will increase the potential for altercations.

17 APRIL 2023

Conflict triggers Hotspots and Travel Warnings.

Three hotspots are triggered by conflict across Sudan as clashes between the RSF and SAF intensify and spread to new areas, such as Khartoum.

New analysis issued on 17 April 2023 raises war risk to high as fighting between the RSF and SAF escalates, with analysts predicting that the security situation is expected to remain volatile nationwide over the coming days. The Seerist Pulse score indicates deteriorating stability with a short-term forecasted improvement in stability, but continued analysis, alerts and event tracking is keeping users apprised of ongoing activities and the associated impact to operations in the region.

20 APRIL 2023

Evacuation Phase Rises to EMERGENCY.
Analysts raise the evacuation phase rating from non-essential to EMERGENCY after the fighting between SAF and paramilitary RSF intensifies.

Based on our sources on the ground, we/Control Risks advises sheltering in place in Khartoum and other areas of intense fighting. Recommendations also include developing plans for the international evacuation of foreign staff along with preparations for local nationals, including accounting for their locations and developing plans for in-country movements to safer areas.

New analysis issued on 21 April 2023 outlines how humanitarian operations will continue to face serious supply-chain challenges over the coming weeks due to continued fighting, impeding their ability to meet growing needs in rural areas. On 24 April, 3 hotspots indicate transportation issues in Sudan along with fighting. The Seerist Pulse score indicates stability scores will continue to remain at low levels. Our analysts note that an observed ceasefire or agreed humanitarian corridor would have a positive impact on stability.

21 APRIL 2023

Evacuation Phase Rises to EMERGENCY.
Analysis on hinderance of humanitarian operations due to fighting.

For organizations that are transporting supplies away from the port into rural area could potentially be difficult.

Fighting near main roads will also impede supply routes because of damage to roads.

28 APRIL 2023

Analysis projects clashes to intensify over strategic control

Fighting between SAF and RSF continues despite commitments to ceasefire

Fighting will remain the most intense in Khartoum and the Darfur region.

Crime in Khartoum will also increase amid dwindling supplies of essential commodities and a lack of security

1 MAY 2023

Elevated levels of fear and anger
emotions analysis of disruptive events
AI-driven sentiment and emotional analysis of the conflict reveal elevated levels of fear and anger.
Daily sentiment analysis

Event data over the past 24 hours indicates strongly negative sentiment, even as the daily volume of reporting on Sudan has started to decline.

2 MAY 2023

Conflict Unlikely to Spill Over to Libya, but will impact business operations

The Libyan National Army has denied it is providing support to Sudan’s RSF

According to analysts at Control Risks, although the LNA may facilitate military procurement by the RSF, it is unlikely to jeopardize its relationship with Egypt through overt involvement in Sudan

Increased flows of armies and military fighters into Sudan will further complicate border security between the two countries, driving an uptick in crime and potential attacks on merchant convoys

New analysis published on 2 May 2023 raises concerns about how regional involvement in the conflict in Sudan – including through the provision of weapons and materiel – could further complicate security in Sudan and in border areas. A 7-day truce has contributed to a rise in stability, but our analysts expect international mediators to ultimately struggle to broker talks between the rival groups, and the pulse timeline is forecasting a small decline in stability over the coming days. We expect personnel and assets in Khartoum and Darfur to be exposed to severe security threats over the coming days.

*Analysis provided by strategic partnership with Control Risks

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