
Opposition Groups in Sudan Reject Transitional Agreement Causing Significant Unrest and Conflicts
Hoping to make their voice heard, the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) called for a national shutdown on Monday, March 20.
As ongoing cash shortages drive protests ahead of election day, presidential candidates are likely to engage in increasingly divisive rhetoric as they look to appeal to their support bases, potentially fueling an uptick in unrest. Seerist’s intelligence team has tracked incidents alongside Control Risks’ geopolitical longer-term risk analysis in the lead-up to the polls. In addition Seerist’s AI-derived data continues to alert users to any real-time events and allow them to monitor overall stability at a country, regional, and city level.
The Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) suspended stay-at-home orders ahead of the upcoming general elections, which should somewhat de-escalate tensions in the southeast region
Other secessionist groups, however, will continue to enforce stay-at-home orders and carry out attacks in the coming weeks, sustaining a volatile security environment
Attacks will primarily target the electoral process and government security forces, but business personnel using security force escorts will face incidental security threats if escort personnel are targeted
Secessionist groups are likely to target polling stations to discourage the public from voting, and threats are likely to be highest in Imo and Anambra states
Bola Tinubu, of the All Progressives Congress (APC) remains the frontrunner to secure a narrow win, though this depends on two critical factors:
A second round of elections could see the PDP return to power following the conclusion of last-minute political alliances
As protests spike amid the banknote redesign fiasco, the Director General of the APC accused the state government and PDP of sponsoring riots to stop an APC rally
Prince Adewole Adebayo, Social Democrat Party (SDP) candidate, speculated there is an agenda to postpone the election and install an interim government
Abubakar has been weakened by infighting within the PDP party
Obi, The Labour Party (LP) candidate, struggles to compete with APC’s and PDP’s nationwide party infrastructure, though his campaign has gained momentum
Maneuvering by candidates is likely to slow government decision making and trigger political violence in major cities ahead of the polls, causing operational disruption and localized incidental security threats
Voting was delayed in many places due to logistical, technical and security challenges. Several polling stations were forced to close after being attacked by armed gangs
Unrest marred the election across the country as armed groups raided and vandalized polling stations, set fire to ballot boxes, and destroyed vehicles and property. At least three people were killed, but casualty numbers are still being confirmed for all incidents
In the wake of attacks on polling locations, citizens took to the streets to protest the political violence, disruptions to voting, and early electoral results
Threat of Unrest Will Persist in the Coming Week Amid Ongoing Reporting of Election Results (Analysis*)
Reporting of results has begun but have only been confirmed in a handful of states; results are expected in the coming days
Opposition voters’ perceptions of interference will drive political tensions in the coming week, sustaining the threat of unrest around electoral commission offices
Existing political and socioeconomic grievances will also continue to create scope for unrest to escalate; protests will primarily pose incidental security threats and cause operational disruption for businesses
The threat of unrest and political violence will persist ahead of gubernatorial and state-level elections on March 11
Ruling Party Candidate’s Narrow Presidential Victory Likely to Drive Unrest and Operational Disruption (Analysis*)
As election day approaches, electoral violence will continue to rise as political parties conclude their campaigns and as vote collation gets underway. Protests by supporters of losing candidates will likely follow the results announcement, and legal challenges to the outcome could heighten tensions and drive unrest and uncertainty.
Seerist’s expert pre- and post-election analysis, coupled with stability forecasts and near-real-time event alerting, will provide users with a holistic view of Nigeria’s political landscape, giving them information they need to make quick, strategic decisions for their organization.
As cash scarcity in Nigeria spurs protests around the country, monitoring events around the areas where your organization operates is crucial.
Seerist’s platform utilizes real-time, AI-detected events and on-the-ground, human-verified events to provide a holistic view of the threat landscape. As the presidential election approaches while cash shortage protests still rage, users can utilize EventsAI and Verified Events to monitor incidents around operational sites to keep their people and assets safe.
Hoping to make their voice heard, the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) called for a national shutdown on Monday, March 20.
Hoping to make their voice heard, the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) called for a national shutdown on Monday, March 20.
After a contentious 10 days, Peruvian President Pedro Castillo was removed from office and arrested after he ordered Congress’ dissolution and creation of a new constitution.
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