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What's Next? Geopolitical Forecasting the Kenyan Election
During the leadup and aftermath of the contentious Kenyan election, on-the-ground analysts equipped users with expert pre- and post-analysis and geopolitical forecasting, while the AI technology provided real-time updates of ongoing unrest and forecasted stability.
PRE-ANALYSIS
Voter apathy to limit turnout at 9 August elections – some unrest likely.
JULY 29, 2022
Growing reports of unrest in the region leads
to a Hotspot trigger
Despite Presidential candidate Raila Odinga’s failure to appear at the debate, he remains likely to win the presidential poll, given his wider network of senior political allies and the backing of the state apparatus.
The long political careers of the two main coalitions will drive voter apathy and contribute to low turnout.
The losers of the electoral contests will likely challenge the results in court over concerns of the independence of the electoral commission.
Although we do not anticipate violence, disruptive protests are likely in the aftermath of the polls given a likely dispute over the results.
Growing reports of unrest in the region leads to a Hotspot trigger
POST-ANALYSIS
Widespread violence remains unlikely despite rising tensions over election outcome.
Paul Ongili Owino, a prominent parliamentarian with links to veteran opposition leader Raila Odinga, said that Odinga supporters will not accept the presidential election results if Odinga loses.
AUGUST 11, 2022
Odinga and his main opponent have thus far garnered a similar number of votes, underlining their success in co-opting a wide range of political leaders.
With a similar number of votes and
growing concerns over impartiality and competency of the IEBC electoral body will facilitate the efforts of each camp to challenge the outcome of the polls.
This will affect the IEBC’s public image, contributing to tensions and unrest that will pose mostly incidental security risks to businesses operating in the country in the next few days.
We maintain that the levels of violence will be significantly less than those experienced during previous elections, partly due to international pressure.
POST-ANALYSIS
Election crisis remains unlikely despite controversies surrounding results.
AUGUST 16, 2022
With uncertainty around elections results,
the Pulse score plummets
Ruto’s main opponent, Raila Odinga, will legally challenge the results at the Supreme Court in the week ahead, thereby prolonging the electoral period.
Political tensions will remain elevated. However, Odinga’s Azimio la Umoja coalition will likely remain open to negotiations with Ruto, given that the coalition’s failure to garner votes in the populous Mount Kenya region will remain a key weakness.
Combined with Ruto’s more conciliatory tone, this will mitigate the threat of violence in the coming weeks. Businesses will largely face incidental security threats resulting from localised protests.
With uncertainty around elections results, the Pulse score plummets
POST-ANALYSIS
Tensions to rise in coming weeks amid judicial proceedings seeking to nullify elections.
Veteran opposition leader Raila Odinga officially filed a petition at the Supreme Court challenging the victory of Deputy President William Ruto.
AUGUST 23, 2022
The petition will pave the way for the Supreme Court and general public to closely scrutinize multiple allegations of foul play at the elections over the coming weeks, worsening distrust between political leaders.
Concerns over the vulnerability of the IEBC and its officials to intimidation will compound these issues, especially as the two sides politicie reports of violence.
These tensions will increase the threat of unrest given the popularity of both Odinga and Ruto in urban areas, especially as the ruling – set for 5 September – approaches.
However, any unrest is unlikely to be
protracted, given that neither Odinga
nor Ruto is likely to resort to violent
mobilisation.
Seerist’s augmented analytical approach goes beyond basic alerting, offering in-depth analyses on the issues that matter to you.
*Analysis provided by strategic partnership with Control Risks
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