Afghanistan Exit Tracked by Our Threat Monitoring Software

Security operations analysts utilized Seerist’s Pulse stability model and threat monitoring software to track the rapidly changing security situation in Afghanistan as the Taliban swept through the country.

As unrest increased across Afghanistan in 2021, Seerist’s stability model, PulseAI, continuously measured changes in stability for the regions that teams were operating in across the country.

Using a minimum acceptable threshold of stability, analysts monitored changes in 11 regions across the country. By comparing the combined risk score to the changing stability levels and forecasted stability in Kabul, they determined the situation was quickly worsening.

While Afghanistan’s regional stability steadily decreased, users were able to track the Pulse score and breaking events via the Watch dashboard

When Kabul’s score dropped at the same rate as the regions, the security team, using advanced threat monitoring software, recommended that leadership evacuate employees. This AI-driven, human-validated assessment ensured all personnel were safely evacuated 8 days before the Taliban captured Kabul.

PulseAI reached its lowest point—a 70% decrease from weeks prior—on August 1 as the Taliban heightened its offensive. By August 15, the Taliban had taken control of various provincial capitals and Kabul.

As the Pulse score cratered following the Taliban’s insurgence, analysts were able to make informed decisions to evacuate their personnel in the area

declining stability score

As the Taliban advanced, regional Pulse stability scores declined, serving as early action indicators for stakeholders using Seerist. In the days preceding the August 26 suicide bombing at Kabul’s Hamid Karzai International Airport, Pulse scores again dropped significantly, reflecting continued instability as personnel and civilians evacuated.

As unrest in the area persisted, Seerist became an invaluable resource to protect users’ personnel and resources throughout the conflict.

*Analysis provided by strategic partnership with Control Risks

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