Global Outlook for August 2026

Analysis provided by Seerist's strategic partner Control Risks

Record-breaking temperatures and prolonged droughts are sustaining severe fire seasons in Europe, North America and North Africa that disrupt transport, air quality and energy infrastructure.

Globally, the 2026 El Niño cycle is expected to act as a risk multiplier, heightening wildfire threats in Southeast Asia and Australia in the coming months. While some regions may see increased rainfall, the associated heatwaves in other areas will strain electricity grids and threaten energy infrastructure.

OPEC+ on 2 August will likely agree to raise output targets from September, despite volatility from recent escalations in the Middle East.

The group has raised output targets since June, which were made to recapture market share after disruption in the Strait of Hormuz drove buyers elsewhere. The trajectory of US-Iran talks and Yemen-based Houthi militant activity will shape regional oil output flows. Intensified Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries will also continue to tighten refined fuel markets. Meanwhile, weaker demand, particularly from China, and ample strategic reserves will likely place downward pressure on prices, at least in the coming weeks.

Anti-corruption issues are likely to continue driving unrest in the coming weeks.

Corruption scandals are being compounded by systemic grievances such as high youth unemployment, high costs of living and poor education standards. In India, the Cockroach Janta Party – a satirical online movement launched in May – secured a major victory in July when the education minister resigned. Corruption-related protests are also taking place in Albania, the Philippines and Nepal.

G20 finance ministers and central bank governors will meet in North Carolina (US) on 31 August–1 September to co-ordinate global economic priorities amid heightened geopolitical tensions.

New US tariffs implemented on 23 July of 10%-12.5% on 60 economies will further strain global trade relations. At the same time, conflict in the Middle East, broader protectionism and stretched public finances will continue to weigh on global growth. The IMF's World Economic Outlook on 8 July noted that the broader trend of AI-related growth is continuing to offset downward pressures on the global economy, such as persistent inflation.

 

 

 

In this outlook, Control Risks’ analysts share their views on key trends and events to monitor over the next month. This is not intended to be an exhaustive list but gives a selection of issues that our teams around the world feel are particularly relevant, interesting or important. To give feedback or suggestions on the outlook, please contact support@seerist.com.

Sources: “Macron rallies government response as wildfires ravage south-west France”, RFI “One Greek Shipowner Becomes Sign of Oil Market’s Growing Strain”, Bloomberg “Awakened Indian Students Hand Modi One of His Biggest Setbacks”, Bloomberg “Actions by the United States in the Investigations under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 of the Acts, Policies, and Practices of 60 Economies Related to the Failure of Each Economy to Impose and Effectively Enforce a Prohibition on the Importation of Goods Produced with Forced Labor”, The White House, Control Risks