Global Outlook for November 2026

Analysis provided by Seerist's strategic partner Control Risks

US midterm elections on 3 November are unlikely to significantly alter US foreign policy.

Democrats are highly likely to regain control of the House of Representatives while Republicans will likely retain a narrow Senate majority, increasing the likelihood of legislative gridlock. However, President Donald Trump will likely retain broad autonomy over international strategic priorities, suggesting a continued hardline stance towards Iran and strained transatlantic tensions, as well as the continuation of the “Donroe Doctrine” in Latin America. Disputes between China and the US over tariffs and export controls will continue, despite a fragile trade truce.

The 33rd Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Economic Leaders’ Summit in Shenzhen (China) on 18-19 November will serve as a platform for strategic non-West-led diplomacy.

Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed a trilateral meeting on the sidelines of the summit with Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Trump on 19 October said that he would meet them to discuss nuclear disarmament rather than the war in Ukraine. However, China’s decision to scale back parts of the APEC agenda, including discussions on AI and regional security, is likely to constrain substantive diplomacy, even as Beijing seeks to showcase its strength and leadership capabilities before the Group of 20 (G20) summit in Miami (US) in December.

The 31st UN Climate Change Conference (COP31) in Antalya (Turkiye) on 9-20 November is unlikely to deliver major new climate commitments as geopolitical fragmentation continues to undermine multilateral climate co-operation.

Co-hosts Turkiye and Australia are likely to prioritise implementation-focused initiatives rather than new binding agreements. China is increasingly positioning itself as a champion of the global south in climate issues as the US steps back, with Beijing reportedly considering a bid to host COP33 in 2028. Negotiations will likely focus on implementing existing pledges and voluntary initiatives on electrification, resilience and adaptation rather than securing new binding agreements.

Youth-led protest movements are likely to drive continued political instability in November.

Although these movements are rooted in local grievances, including education in France and India, corruption in Albania and Serbia, and high costs of living in Spain, Italy and Belgium, they reflect wider concerns over economic exclusion and social mobility. Incidents in France, Belgium, Albania and India over recent months highlight the potential for protests to escalate into clashes with security forces, property damage and mass arrests. Businesses should anticipate periodic operational disruption in major urban centres, particularly in countries with approaching elections, such as Spain in November.

In this outlook, Control Risks’ analysts share their views on key trends and events to monitor over the next month. This is not intended to be an exhaustive list but gives a selection of issues that our teams around the world feel are particularly relevant, interesting or important. To give feedback or suggestions on the outlook, please contact support@seerist.com.

Sources:

• “What you need to know about the 2026 US midterm elections”, Reuters
• “Trump says he is open to trilateral summit with Putin and Xi”, POLITICO
• “China angers partners with plan to move part of Asia-Pacific summit online”, Financial Times
• “Climate Cooperation”, COP31
• “French Violence Raises Alert as Protests Flare Across Europe”, Bloomberg
• Control Risks