Global Outlook for September 2026

Analysis provided by Seerist's strategic partner Control Risks

Discussions at the UN General Assembly in New York City (US) on 8-22 September and at the BRICS summit in New Delhi (India) on 12-13 September will centre on the Middle East conflict and global trade tensions.

Geopolitical tensions between Western, Russian and Chinese blocs will complicate any concrete outcomes at the UN meeting. Russia will keep pushing for a BRICS Grain Exchange to bypass Western commodity markets, but adoption at the summit is unlikely. Divisions over the Middle East and India-China rivalry will continue to slow the creation of joint BRICS frameworks.

Ahead of a likely meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump in the US later in September, both nations are signalling a desire to avoid renewed escalation as tensions persist over tariffs, technology and Iran.

Recent tit-for-tat trade measures reflect the enduring fragility of bilateral economic ties, with Washington threatening sharper sanctions and secondary tariffs against countries and entities facilitating Iranian trade. The primary expected outcome of the summit is the preservation of fragile bilateral stabilisation through the extension of partial suspensions on selected tariffs and export controls that are due to expire on 11 November.

In Russia, an expected victory for the pro-President Vladimir Putin, pro-war United Russia party in the State Duma (lower chamber) elections on 18-20 September will sustain the conflict in Ukraine.

The Kremlin will likely remain intent to suppress pro-peace sentiment, as seen by the banning in August of a pro-peace party from the ballot. Reports that the EU is preparing its largest Russia sanctions package since 2022 and the potential for a post-election mass mobilisation will sustain the longer-term threat to Russia's political stability despite United Russia's current dominance.

EU officials will continue to advance discussions on balancing the EU-China trade relationship.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on 27 August stated that the EU would use all of the trade mechanisms at its disposal if a deal was not reached by October to reduce the EU's trade deficit with China. The EU has led with China-focused legislation, anti-dumping probes and Foreign Subsidies Regulation investigations into Chinese firms. Beijing has retaliated by invoking regulations to block compliance with EU extraterritorial probes.

The EU State of the Union address by von der Leyen on 16 September is expected to include a planned social media ban for minors, underscoring increased global regulatory pressure on the tech sector.

Several social media platforms in late August in a legal settlement with multiple US states agreed to implement changes to their platforms for users under the age of 18.

An address by Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney to the EU the day after he attends von der Leyen's speech is likely to set out the basis for discussions on future Canada-EU trade relations.

This highlights ongoing efforts by middle powers to diversify trade relations amid persistent uncertainties over US trade policies. Moves to deepen EU-Canada ties predate a breakdown of trade negotiations between Canada and the US in mid-August. Trade relations will continue to strengthen between middle powers and between middle powers and large trading blocs such as the EU and South American trade bloc, the Southern Common Market (Mercosur).

 

 

 

In this outlook, Control Risks’ analysts share their views on key trends and events to monitor over the next month. This is not intended to be an exhaustive list but gives a selection of issues that our teams around the world feel are particularly relevant, interesting or important. To give feedback or suggestions on the outlook, please contact support@seerist.com.

Sources: “EXCLUSIVE: EU could announce social media ban for kids in September”, Euractiv “Canada’s Carney to attend EU’s State of the Union”, Politico “Von der Leyen turns up pressure on China over trade deficit”, Euronews, Control Risks