Global Outlook July 2026
We have identified the following key developments and trends in July to watch globally over the coming month.
Analysis provided by Seerist's strategic partner Control Risks
Turkiye on 7-8 July will host 32 NATO leaders, as well as officials from the Gulf and Asia-Pacific region, amid tensions within the alliance over burden-sharing, defence spending and US actions in the Middle East.
The summit will act as a stress test for alliance cohesion rather than a forum for major outcomes. It will expose transatlantic divisions over defence spending, support for Ukraine and US security commitments. Overall, the summit reflects a broader shift towards a more multipolar, less predictable security environment, with NATO remaining intact but increasingly contested.
US-Iran negotiations will continue but are unlikely to deliver a near‑term resolution.
The memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed by Iran and the US on 17-18 June reduced immediate escalation risks and opened a 60‑day negotiation window. However, this is likely to be extended given technical complexity and political sensitivities. The US is likely to prioritise deterrence over escalation ahead of the November midterms, limiting the likelihood of significant escalation. However, ambiguity in the framework and potential political manoeuvring will sustain risks of disruption, particularly to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
A cluster of US trade policy deadlines in July, including the expiry of Section 122 tariffs and new Section 301 measures affecting more than 60 jurisdictions, will drive global trade volatility in the coming weeks.
The expiry date for the temporary global tariffs is 24 July, and the US administration is likely to impose new measures before the deadline. Meanwhile, the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) virtual meeting on 1 July and US-Mexico review round on 20 July are most likely to produce an agreement to continue negotiations rather than a final decision.
The emergence of El Niño conditions in a year that is already witnessing elevated temperatures will drive energy and food insecurity as well as subsequent social unrest risks in the coming weeks.
El Niño has direct operational impacts on maritime operations that support the flow of goods, with lower water levels affecting critical routes including the Panama Canal and the Rhine River. Extreme temperatures resulting from El Niño will likely drive significant cooling demands in South and Southeast Asia, Europe and North America, increasing the likelihood of energy blackouts.
The 31st session of the International Seabed Authority (ISA) continues in July, following limited progress in March.
The session focuses on matters including continued development towards rules, regulations and procedures for mining in the international seabed area. Varied state positions persist on the issue. Notable among these is the US, which has not ratified the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea and therefore is not part of the ISA. The US administration under President Donald Trump has made access to critical minerals a strategic priority, including forming new critical mineral alliances. US unilateral efforts towards seabed mining beyond national jurisdiction as part of the prioritisation remain a point of contention.
In this outlook, Control Risks’ analysts share their views on key trends and events to monitor over the next month. This is not intended to be an exhaustive list but gives a selection of issues that our teams around the world feel are particularly relevant, interesting or important. To give feedback or suggestions on the outlook, please contact support@seerist.com.
Sources: ““Turkey says NATO adjusting to security landscape, US not withdrawing”, Reuters “U.S. and Iran negotiators head to Doha, but meeting uncertain”, NBC “Why the US-Mexico-Canada Trade Deal Is in Jeopardy”, Bloomberg “A severe El Niño could threaten something essential to half of humanity – rice”, The Conversation “The 31st Session of the International Seabed Authority”, ISA Control Risks