Global Outlook June 2026
We have identified the following key developments and trends to watch globally over the coming month.
Analysis provided by Seerist's strategic partner Control Risks
The Group of Seven (G7) Leaders’ Summit will take place in Évian-les-Bains (France) on 15-17 June. It will focus on geopolitical crises in the Middle East and Ukraine, along with alignment on strategic issues.
France made securing critical minerals and breaking China’s monopoly on the global supply chain a primary focus of its 2026 presidency of the G7. France will likely push to secure related agreements, including potential permanent secretariats that would exist outside G7 presidency cycles. However, transatlantic tensions will likely undermine G7 unity, reducing the likelihood of a consensus communiqué after the summit.
As the Strait of Hormuz remains in effect closed, major energy importers will likely continue to secure supplies from alternative producers.
Canada and Germany on 27 May announced a deal for Ottawa to supply Berlin with liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Ksi Lisims LNG, a planned west coast facility in British Columbia. Germany agreed to buy up to 1m metric tons per year from the proposed export plant. Meanwhile, some countries, including those in southeast Asia, are looking towards Russia to fill their deficits.
Transnational Islamist extremist groups maintain a high intent to target international sporting events during the 2026 FIFA World Cup taking place in the US, Canada and Mexico between 11 June and 19 July.
Islamist extremist attacks targeting or occurring during major sporting events have taken place in Europe, Africa and the Middle East in the last decade. However, these threats are comparatively lower in North America, given the significantly smaller presence and lower capabilities of terrorist organisations. The most likely threat scenario in Canada and the US is a small-scale or opportunistic attack by an individual or small group targeting public spaces and other soft targets, such as transport hubs.
Global meteorological tracking institutions assess that El Niño weather conditions will likely emerge in the coming weeks.
This cycle is likely to drive a sharp divergence in regional impacts: while parts of South America may see improved growing conditions for soy and corn, other regions such as Indonesia, Australia and southern Africa face heightened risks of drought and wildfires. Conversely, the southern US and parts of Argentina are likely to experience wetter conditions that could bolster crop yields.
Major travel disruption from Ebola-driven restrictions, such as border closures beyond the affected regions, remains very unlikely.
Although the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has experience dealing with Ebola outbreaks, this outbreak will prove challenging to control due to entrenched insecurity in the country, the rarity of the Bundibugyo strain of the virus and the virus circulating for an extended period before detection. Governments have primarily responded with enhanced airport screening and travel advisories for DRC, Uganda and in some cases South Sudan, while some others have imposed entry bans or quarantine measures on targeted travellers. However, the global risk of infection remains low to very low.
This is not intended to be an exhaustive list but gives a selection of issues that our teams around the world feel are particularly relevant, interesting or important. To give feedback or suggestions on the outlook, please contact support@seerist.com.
Sources: “Exclusive: G7 in talks to set up permanent unit to oversee critical minerals agenda”, Reuters “Canada secures first European LNG deal”, Government of Canada “The Terrorist Threat to the 2026 World Cup”, The Terrorist Threat to the 2026 World Cup “El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO)”, El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) “Government of Canada introduces temporary border measures in response to the Ebola disease outbreak”, Government of Canada Control Risks