Global Outlook for October 2026

Analysis provided by Seerist's strategic partner Control Risks

The third anniversary of the 7 October 2023 attacks on Israel by Palestinian Islamist militant group Hamas and the Jewish holiday of Sukkot (25 September-2 October) will likely heighten the global terrorism threat environment.

Islamist extremist groups will likely increase propaganda efforts and retain elevated intent to conduct attacks. Jewish and Israel-linked sites, public gatherings and other soft targets will likely remain priority targets, particularly in Europe, North America and the Middle East. Most incidents are likely to involve opportunistic, small-scale attacks.

Annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank will take place in Bangkok (Thailand) from 12-18 October amid geostrategic tensions, trade fragmentation and rising debt burdens weighing on the global economy.

Discussions will likely focus on fiscal pressure, uneven inflation trends and risks stemming from energy market volatility and disruption to key trade routes. Central banks are likely to remain cautious about future monetary easing as conflicts in the Middle East and trade disruptions continue to pose inflationary risks. Uncertainty around energy prices, supply chains and investment conditions will likely continue to constrain global growth.

The International AI Summit in Dublin (Ireland) on 14 October will bring together policymakers and industry leaders to discuss Europe’s AI competitiveness.

The event, held as part of European AI Innovation Month and Ireland’s presidency of the EU Council, reflects growing efforts by the EU to position itself as holding an alternative regulatory model to the US and China. Discussions will focus on AI investment, digital infrastructure, and the balance between regulation and innovation. The summit will face elevated disruption risks from anti-AI, anti-war and pro-Palestinian activists targeting high-profile participants, prompting enhanced security measures.

The pre-COP31 meeting in Fiji on 5-8 October will focus on building consensus on climate finance, emissions reduction and adaptation measures ahead of COP31.

Participants will aim to draw attention to the disproportionate impact of climate change on Pacific Island states, including rising sea levels, coastal erosion and growing risks to infrastructure, communities and food security. Recent climate impacts linked to the El Niño weather phenomenon have reinforced concerns about the region’s vulnerability.

Six national elections will take place in October.

The nationalist Latvia First party will likely win the most votes in Latvia’s 3 October parliamentary elections. Bosnia and Herzegovina will hold general elections on 4 October, with the fragmented political landscape likely to persist. In Brazil, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is seeking a fourth term in the 4 October general elections, which will likely be closely contested. Bulgaria will hold its presidential election on 25 October, with the centre-right GERB party likely to remain the country’s largest political party. Serbia’s snap parliamentary election on 25 October will take place amid heightened political tensions and anti-government protests. Israel will hold a legislative election on 27 October, with polls indicating a narrow lead for the opposition bloc, though Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remains a strong contender.

In this outlook, Control Risks’ analysts share their views on key trends and events to monitor over the next month. This is not intended to be an exhaustive list but gives a selection of issues that our teams around the world feel are particularly relevant, interesting or important. To give feedback or suggestions on the outlook, please contact support@seerist.com.

Sources: “Global Economy in the Shadow of War”, IMF “Annual Meetings”, World Bank Group “Harnessing AI to Revolutionise Europe’s Competitiveness”, International AI Summit “COP31 Türkiye Antalya 2026 UN Climate Change Summit”, COP31 Control Risks