Geopolitical Risk Intelligence
A survey of the events that tested enterprise risk programs
Major Geopolitical Events 2024-2026: How Resilient Teams Moved Through Them
Updated October 2026
Between 2024 and 2026, a sitting head of state was seized overnight, a cartel blocked roads across 20 Mexican states within hours, and the world's most important oil chokepoint closed. This page looks at some of the major geopolitical events from January 2024 to September 2026. For each one it covers what happened, how enterprises were exposed, the decisions teams faced and what is still worth watching.
The throughline
The events changed. The bottleneck didn't.
Most organizations caught off guard in 2024-2026 had plenty of information. Every event on this page was reported, analyzed and in several cases forecast before it peaked. The difference between teams that moved early and teams that moved late was what happened to that intelligence once it reached the organization.
The teams that came through best had four things in common. Each event below is tagged with the one it tested hardest.
01
Continuous, dynamic monitoring
Exposure changes by the hour. Detection has to run against your own footprint of people, sites, suppliers and routes, so that a strike, a roadblock or an airport closure shows up as a change to your risk instead of a headline you find later.
02
Clear context
A drone incursion, a cartel reprisal or a protest call means little on its own. Verified events, history and analyst judgment turn a signal into a decision someone will act on.
03
Streamlined intelligence workflows
When collection, verification, analysis and dissemination sit in separate tools and inboxes, every handoff costs time the event does not give back.
04
Becoming an intelligence producer
The most resilient teams produce their own intelligence as well as reading other people's. They write tailored assessments, briefings and alerts for executives, travel, supply chain and site leaders, as fast as the event requires.
Chronology
2024-2026 at a glance
- 3 Dec 2024: South Korea's president declares martial law; it is lifted within hours
- 8 Dec 2024: The Assad government falls in Syria
- Mar to May 2025: US strike campaign against the Houthis
- 13 to 24 Jun 2025: Israel-Iran twelve-day war
- 24 to 28 Jul 2025: Thailand-Cambodia border fighting (renewed in December)
- 9 to 10 Sep 2025: Russian drones violate Polish airspace
- Sep to Oct 2025: Gen Z protest wave topples governments in Nepal and Madagascar
- 18 Dec 2025: US repeals the Caesar Act sanctions on Syria
- 3 Jan 2026: US operation captures Nicolás Maduro
- 22 Feb 2026: CJNG leader "El Mencho" killed in Mexico
- 28 Feb 2026 onward: US-Israel war with Iran; Strait of Hormuz closed
Tested: continuous monitoring
Iran: from shadow war to a closed strait
For years, the conflict between Iran and Israel was fought mostly through proxies. That stopped being true in stages. Direct exchanges in 2024 (Seerist) were followed in June 2025 by a twelve-day war. Israel began striking Iranian nuclear and military sites on 13 June, the US hit the Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan nuclear facilities on 21 June (CSIS), and a US-brokered ceasefire took effect on 24 June (Al Jazeera).
On 28 February 2026, the US and Israel began strikes on Iran. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed, and Iran said it would shut the Strait of Hormuz. Almost all shipping through the strait stopped (House of Commons Library). Iranian missiles and drones targeted Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE and Bahrain (Al Jazeera). A conditional ceasefire on 8 April did not reopen the strait, and on 13 April the US began a counter-blockade of ships bound for Iranian ports (House of Commons Library).
On 20 February, eight days before the first strikes, Seerist's reporting assessed US military action as likely. The assessment rested on carrier group transit times, tanker aircraft deployments and the expiry of a US deadline.
Hormuz oil flow, 2024
20M b/d
About 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption.
Source: US EIA, June 2025 →Hormuz LNG share, 2024
~1/5
Share of global LNG trade that passed through the strait, mostly from Qatar.
Source: US EIA, June 2025 →Brent, 12 March 2026
$100+
Brent settled above $100 a barrel for the first time since August 2022.
Source: Bloomberg →Early warning
8 days
Gap between Seerist's assessment that US action was likely and the first strikes.
Source: Seerist, 20 February 2026 →01
The exposure
People. Staff and travelers in Israel and across the Gulf were in range of missile and drone retaliation. Their ability to leave depended on airspace that could close with no notice.
Energy and freight. Oil, LNG, petrochemicals and any cargo routed through the Gulf were affected, along with vessels and crews stuck inside it.
Second-order costs. Fuel, freight and insurance costs passed through to every business with physical logistics, including those with no presence in the region.
02
The decisions on the table
In February 2026, the best-prepared teams had agreed their triggers in advance.
Draw down non-essential staff from the Gulf once US carrier groups were in position and the US deadline passed without progress.
Shelter in place or move based on missile or drone activity within range of a specific site, plus airspace status on exit routes.
Reroute, hold or stockpile Gulf-dependent cargo on carrier suspensions and changes to insurance cover.
03
Still watching
On 4 October 2026, Iran said the strait would stay closed until the US meets its conditions (Al Jazeera).
Watch for the terms of any reopening, for US secondary sanctions and tariffs aimed at entities that facilitate Iranian trade (Seerist Global Outlook, September 2026), and for the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah spreading further.
Seerist coverage: Iran
- Seerist Big Picture Series: Israel-Iran Tensions (April 2024)
- Israel-Iran Military Escalation to Continue (June 2025)
- 7-Day Update: Increasing Indications of Escalation (June 2025)
- US military action likely in March after ultimatum to Iran (February 2026)
- Middle East Conflict: ongoing intelligence reports (2026)
- Webinar: A Proactive Framework for Monitoring Risk in the Middle East Conflict (June 2026)
Tested: clear context
Two chokepoints, two different problems
Houthi attacks on commercial shipping, which started in late 2023, had already pushed much Asia-Europe trade away from the Suez Canal. The canal carried an estimated 12% to 15% of global trade in 2023, and by January 2024 weekly container transits had fallen 67% (UNCTAD). In spring 2025 the US ran a sustained strike campaign against the Houthis (Seerist).
On a map, the Red Sea and Hormuz crises look alike. They called for different responses, and teams that treated them as the same problem wasted time.
| At a glance Late 2023 onward | Red Sea and Suez 2026 | Strait of Hormuz |
|---|---|---|
| What changed | Attacks made transit dangerous | Closure stopped almost all traffic |
| Workaround | Reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, at extra time and cost | Limited. Some pipeline capacity bypasses the strait, but most volume cannot |
| Who felt it first | Container lines, retailers and manufacturers on Asia-Europe lanes | Energy importers first, then anyone paying for fuel |
| The question for risk teams | How long can we absorb the longer route? | Do we have a route at all? |
| Still watching | Whether carriers return to Suez, and how Houthi activity tracks the Iran war | Terms of reopening, ships and crews still stranded, insurance availability |
Sources: UNCTAD (January 2024) for Suez figures; US EIA (June 2025) for Hormuz bypass capacity.
Seerist coverage: Red Sea and maritime
- US Strikes and Potential Ground Offensives (May 2025)
- Webinar: Understanding Maritime Risks and Sabotage at Sea (April 2025)
Tested: streamlined workflows
Venezuela: a head of state removed overnight
Early on 3 January 2026, the US carried out what President Trump called a large-scale strike on Venezuela. US forces captured Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, and flew them out of the country to face charges in New York (WDET/NPR).
For enterprises with people, partners or assets in Venezuela, weeks of normal scenario planning had to happen over a single weekend. Teams that kept collection, verification and briefing in one workflow moved through the first 72 hours much faster than those passing files between tools. This is how those 72 hours played out for risk teams.
01
Hours 0 to 12: Establish the facts
Confirm what happened and where. Account for staff in Caracas. Separate verified reports from rumor while explosions are still being reported across the city.
02
Day 1 to 2: Map the spillover
Track verified unrest, protests in other countries, and maritime and aviation impacts. Brief leadership on what is known, what is not, and when the next update will come.
03
Day 3: Set the posture
Decide whether to stay, consolidate or exit for the weeks ahead. Start legal review of counterparties whose status may change with the government.
Still watching: Venezuela
Who exercises effective authority during the transition. Changes to sanctions and licensing that affect the oil sector. Protest activity inside Venezuela and across the diaspora.
Seerist coverage: 3-Day Update: Impacts from US Military Operations in Venezuela (January 2026)
Tested: continuous monitoring
Mexico: one operation, 20 states
On 22 February 2026, Mexican forces killed Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, known as "El Mencho," the leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG). The cartel retaliated within hours with more than 250 roadblocks across 20 states, burned vehicles and school closures. The US Embassy told staff in several cities to shelter in place (Michigan Public/NPR).
Seerist's reporting the next day carried a Control Risks rating of VERY HIGH security risk for western Mexico, for 72 hours to a week. The disruption hit highway logistics, fuel stations and retail sites targeted by arson, and travel through tourism hubs such as Puerto Vallarta.
"The decision most teams faced by mid-afternoon: keep people where they are, or move them before the roadblocks spread."
Still watching: Mexico
Seerist assessed that, with no clear successor, competition inside the CJNG is likely to continue for months. That means continued volatility in Jalisco and other states where the cartel operates, and possible shifts in criminal alliances across the country.
Seerist coverage: Criminal leader's death to drive VERY HIGH security risks in several states over coming days (February 2026) · FIFA World Cup 2026: Mexico (April 2026)
Tested: clear context
Europe: the war's edges move west
Russia's war against Ukraine continued through the whole period, and its effects increasingly reached NATO territory. Overnight on 9 to 10 September 2025, Russian drones repeatedly violated Polish airspace, and Poland invoked NATO's Article 4 (Axios). Four Polish airports, including Warsaw Chopin, were closed overnight (Polskie Radio), and on 12 September NATO launched Operation Eastern Sentry to reinforce its eastern flank (Al Jazeera). Attacks on undersea cables and other infrastructure added a maritime dimension to the same pressure.
The signal
An airport closes.
A cable goes dark. Flights divert. On its own, the event looks like any other disruption.
The context that changes the decision
Deliberate, or a one-off?
Is it part of a pattern? Did an alliance respond, and will it happen again? A weather closure ends when the weather clears. A hybrid campaign does not. Teams that could tell the two apart quickly re-routed travel through eastern-flank hubs and reviewed infrastructure dependencies before the next incident, not after it.
Still watching: Europe
Seerist assessed that September's State Duma elections would likely sustain the war in Ukraine. Reports of possible mobilization after the elections and a large new EU sanctions package add risk beyond that (Seerist Global Outlook, September 2026).
Seerist coverage: Airspace Violations in Europe (October 2025) · NATO Summit 2025 (June 2025) · Munich Security Conference (February 2025)
Tested: streamlined workflows
South Korea: six hours of martial law
Late on 3 December 2024, President Yoon Suk Yeol declared martial law. The National Assembly voted it down, and it was lifted about six hours later. Yoon was impeached and then removed from office by the Constitutional Court on 4 April 2025 (Boston Globe).
An annual country rating would have shown South Korea as stable both before and after. The risk was in the gap. Within the first hour, teams needed answers to two questions: Are any of our people near the National Assembly or the protests forming around it? What does this mean for operations by the time the markets open?
Still watching: South Korea
Political polarization, and protest activity around the court proceedings that followed.
Seerist coverage: South Korea's Six-hour Martial Law (December 2024)
Tested: becoming an intelligence producer
The Gen Z protest wave: local grievances, global playbook
In September and October 2025, youth-led protests organized largely on digital platforms brought down Nepal's government within a week. In Madagascar they preceded a military takeover: on 14 October 2025 an elite army unit took control after President Andry Rajoelina fled (World Politics Review). Movements with the same grievances over corruption, inequality and governance appeared in Morocco, Peru and the Philippines (Seerist webinar).
No standard country report could tell a CEO whether the next wave would reach their market. The teams that saw it coming had built their own indicator sets, covering grievance triggers, digital mobilization and how security forces responded, and briefed internally on what those indicators were showing.
Sep 2025
Nepal
The government collapsed after a week of protests over corruption, inequality and a social media ban.
Source: World Politics Review →Oct 2025
Madagascar
Protests over electricity and water cuts ended in a military takeover.
Madagascar Protests and Coup →2025
Morocco, Peru, the Philippines
Local protests linked into a transnational movement coordinated on digital platforms.
Webinar: Global Gen Z Protests →Since Nov 2024
Serbia
Protests have continued since the November 2024 Novi Sad tragedy.
Serbia Unrest Outlook →Still watching: protest movements
Serbia's snap parliamentary election on 25 October 2026, which takes place amid continuing protests (Seerist Global Outlook, October 2026). Also watch protest anniversaries, which often bring new mobilization: Madagascar's protesters marked one year since Rajoelina's fall in September 2026 (Africanews).
More Seerist coverage: Tracking Serbia Protests (March 2025)
Tested: clear context
Syria: when the risk picture includes opportunity
Rebel forces ousted Bashar al-Assad in December 2024. A year later, on 18 December 2025, the US repealed the Caesar Act sanctions (PBS NewsHour). For enterprises, Syria went from a market to avoid to a market to evaluate. Terrorism, unrest and infrastructure risk did not go away.
Syria, before and after
Same country, a different question
Before (until December 2024)
The question was "Are we exposed to Syria through any counterparty?" The answer was usually to screen and avoid.
After (2026)
The question is "Can we operate here, with whom, and under what security conditions?" Answering it takes current intelligence on terrorism, unrest, infrastructure and the remaining sanctions, all assessed together.
Still watching: Syria
Whether the transition holds, which individual designations and non-US restrictions remain in place, and security incidents along key roads and border crossings.
Seerist coverage: Syria: Risk Landscape and Business Opportunities Outlook (January 2026)
Also on the radar
More events Seerist tracked
Not every major event fits a single section. These also shaped exposure for enterprises between 2024 and 2026.
Jul and Dec 2025
Thailand-Cambodia border conflict
Fighting broke out in July 2025 and started again in December (Daily Maverick).
Thailand-Cambodia Conflict →Ongoing
South China Sea
Ongoing maritime confrontation.
Seerist Deep Dive: South China Sea Conflict →2024
The election super-cycle
From Taiwan in January to a year of contested information environments.
Taiwan Election 2024 →2024 to 2025
The US transition
Short- and long-term impacts of the 2024 US election.
Webinar: Beyond the Ballot →2025 to 2026
Elections ahead
Myanmar's December 2025 vote and Colombia's 2026 presidential election.
Colombia 2026 Presidential Elections →From consumer to producer
What these events ask of your intelligence program
None of these events could be handled by reading about them once a year. Each needed the same chain: detection against your own footprint, context you can trust, a workflow that gets from signal to decision without delays, and intelligence your team produces for the people who have to act on it.
Seerist supplies the intelligence behind that chain. Seerist Monitor and Alerts keep watch over your people, sites and routes, and PulseAI and HotspotsAI surface emerging signals. Verified Events and Control Risks analysis add context. AskAnna speeds up investigation. Report Builder and AI Situation Report turn your team's findings into briefings for executives, travel, supply chain and site leaders. Pair it with a defensible country risk assessment and ongoing geopolitical risk monitoring to keep your exposure picture current between reviews.
What were the major geopolitical events of 2024-2026?
Among the most consequential for enterprises: the escalation between Israel and Iran into open war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Red Sea shipping attacks, the US operation that removed Nicolás Maduro, the killing of the CJNG leader in Mexico, Russian airspace violations over NATO territory, South Korea's brief martial law, the Gen Z protest wave and Syria's post-Assad transition.
Why aren't annual risk reports enough?
They describe conditions at a point in time. Every event here changed exposure within hours or days. Annual and quarterly reports remain useful for strategy, but operational decisions need continuous monitoring, verified context and a workflow that reaches decision-makers quickly.
What does it mean to be an intelligence producer?
It means your team creates finished intelligence for its own stakeholders, such as tailored assessments, briefings and alerts, instead of only forwarding third-party reports. Producers set their own indicators and triggers, so they can act before a general report catches up.
Stop reading about events after the fact. Start producing intelligence while they unfold.
Sources
External sources
- Africanews, Madagascar protest anniversary, 24 Sep 2026: africanews.com
- Al Jazeera, US-Israel-Iran conflict key events, 24 Jun 2025: aljazeera.com
- Al Jazeera, Iranian missiles intercepted over Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, Bahrain, 7 Mar 2026: aljazeera.com
- Al Jazeera, NATO announces Eastern Sentry, 12 Sep 2025: aljazeera.com
- Al Jazeera, Iran says Hormuz to remain closed until US meets conditions, 4 Oct 2026: aljazeera.com
- Axios, Russian drones in Polish airspace, 10 Sep 2025: axios.com
- Bloomberg, Brent closes above $100 for first time since August 2022, 12 Mar 2026: bloomberg.com
- Boston Globe, Yoon removed from office, Apr 2025: bostonglobe.com
- CSIS, What Operation Midnight Hammer Means for the Future of Iran's Nuclear Ambitions: csis.org
- Daily Maverick, Thailand-Cambodia fighting resumes, 8 Dec 2025: dailymaverick.co.za
- House of Commons Library, Israel/US-Iran conflict 2026: commonslibrary.parliament.uk
- Michigan Public/NPR, Mexico cartel retaliation, 23 Feb 2026: michiganpublic.org
- PBS NewsHour, Caesar Act repeal, 19 Dec 2025: pbs.org
- Polskie Radio, Poland halts flights at Warsaw Chopin, 10 Sep 2025: polskieradio.pl
- UNCTAD, Red Sea, Black Sea and Panama Canal disruptions, Jan 2024: unctad.org
- US EIA, Strait of Hormuz, 16 Jun 2025: eia.gov
- WDET/NPR, Maduro captured, 3 Jan 2026: wdet.org
- World Politics Review, Madagascar Gen Z protests: worldpoliticsreview.com